克里米亚 -- 普京搬起石头砸了自己的脚

乌克兰历史上为苏俄一部分，虽然始终有分裂势力，但力量并不强。现今的乌克兰偏 向西方势力与偏向俄罗斯势力大体是一半一半。偏向西方势力稍占多数，2004年 Yushchenko以52%对44%赢得总统，这还是受到俄罗斯势力毒害、橙色革命 之后。当乌克兰力量分裂，俄罗斯势力可以卷土重来，控制 乌克兰政治。 但这个平衡终于在今天结束 -- 克里米亚在普金的撑腰下脱离乌克兰，可以说克 里米亚与乌克兰永远说拜拜了，但这也彻底改变了乌克兰的政治势力对比。克里米 亚的俄罗斯族人对乌克兰政治的影响不在，而怒气的乌克兰虽对克里米亚和俄罗斯 不干动手，但会以种种手段整肃境内的俄罗斯族人，一轮移民将无法避免 -- 既 有俄罗斯族人向俄罗斯移民，也会有克里米亚的乌克兰族人向乌克兰的移民，进一 步改变乌克兰的政治势力对比。 乌克兰势必将从一个半亲俄的国家转变为加入东欧憎俄俱乐部（波兰、格鲁吉亚、波 罗的海三国等）。而俄罗斯得到克里米亚不过是捡个豆而丢个瓜。普金粗鲁的政治也 使俄罗斯陷入空前的孤立 -- 甚于侵略阿富汗之后的孤立 -- 具有讽刺意义的 是，79年乌克兰还是个联合国内随时对苏联说“是”的傀儡。奥巴马从上位以来对 俄罗斯的绥靖政策也不得不终止。

Bomb the Hurrican

Jason drives with family along I-95 from MD to Florida. As a former air force captain, he is FEMA official working id DC. he want to spend a week in Disney when school has spring break. They left in early morning, the weathe is light raining. The forcast predicts raining, but nothing to worry about. After five hours, traffic in NC is light. The sky become dark, and raining heavily. Jason told his daughter that wearing sun-glases will help driver in raining weather. Of course when not too dark. They were listens pop songs from radio. Suddenly there is beep in radio, but they didn't worry about that. Somewhere must be flooding, he thought. "Hurrican is in xxx counties in Norther North Carolina". He heard himself with hiss: we are in that area. "Turn on PC, see where is that area is?" He told his wife. ... "The warmer weather caused more hurrican in united states. We are in a dangerous time." Jason told Tom, header of the agency. Predicting is helping people, but not enough. Tom shrugs, "what we can do?" "Bomb the hurrican." "You mean drop bobm to hurrican, that is absurd" "Goverment use rocket for hail prevention. Hurrican is nothing but strong wind. If we distroy the local wind flow, we can stop the hurrican. " ... There are thousands of hurricans. Hi, we don't need bomb all hurrican, only category 3 and above. You know when you find hurrican, there are hundreds mile away, maybe thousand miles away. When airplane reachs there, damage already done. Scientis can pinpoint most likeley places hurrican will happens hours ago. ... Minister said: "I cann't bomb American, neither President" "No, you don't bomb the land, you drop it in mid-air" ... F-16 took off with two 500 pounds ...

好水川战役析

韩琦要求任福的行军路线是：镇戎军 -->怀远城-->得胜寨-->羊牧隆城。
　　从镇戎军到怀远城是从东到西跨六盘山，再往后则是转向南(向宋的腹地)。这如何能“出贼之后”、“待其归然後邀击之”？
　　
　　这就要了解西夏军队的进攻路径，此次韩琦得到的情报是元昊要进攻渭州，“而谍者言元昊阅兵折姜会，谋寇渭州。”
　　但并非从镇戎军这条相对平坦的通道过来，而是从西而来，跨越六盘山直接攻击南方的渭州。
　　
　　韩琦的策略应当是宋军绕到六盘山西面，扎个钉子，当西夏军队进攻渭州不利向西后撤时，寻找战机，打击后撤的西夏军。
　　
　　此计划破败，一是因为宋军路遇西夏一支偏旅，而任福又执意用步兵大集团追踪少量骑兵。追赶过程中元昊重新安排了部署，用此败兵为诱饵，把宋军引入陷阱。
　　
　　第二个失败的因素是宋军行动太早，西夏主力尚未过山，更谈不上围攻渭州。宋军本是抄后路去的，结果却与迟迟到来的西夏主力碰上了头。

电影“勇敢的心”战役分析

　先看战争双方，苏格兰士兵各方面都弱于英军，英军统帅更是从心底里瞧不起眼前这帮农民，华莱士要做的就是利用敌人的轻敌来战胜之。
　　
　　英军首先动用的是轻步兵，也就是长弓兵，远程打击对手。这种百米以上的漫射是一种骚扰性打击，作用不是杀伤敌人，而是破坏其阵形，打击敌方士气。华莱士据此下了一步关键的伏手：命令相对弱小的重骑兵离开战场，伪装溃逃。这些骑兵将是战斗后期的决定性力量。
　　
　　英军统帅眼见苏格兰军骑兵逃跑，更加蔑视对手，因此犯下此战最大的错误：令重骑兵单独向敌手发动正面冲击。若对手士兵心理素质不佳，重骑兵的冲击将轻易冲垮敌阵。只是华莱士早有防备，在骑兵撞击之前，迅速部署了长矛阵，骑兵躲无可躲，覆灭在阵前。
　　
　　历史上的确有这样的战例--留克特拉战役，查尔斯·奥曼在《中世纪战争艺术史》中描述：“这两支部队碰到一起，英格兰骑士高头大马撞到了苏格兰士兵的长矛上，就像撞到了一棵大树，爆发了巨大而可怕的碰撞，队形割裂了，马也撞死了，它们紧紧地堆在一起。”
　　
　　面对重骑兵的悲惨遭遇，英军统帅急怒攻心，令重步兵发动攻击，双方步兵混战搏杀。此时华莱士埋伏的重骑兵返回战场，首先对缺少重兵掩护的英军后卫轻步兵进行攻击，这与其说是战斗，还不如说是一场屠戮，英军后卫很快崩溃，没有死的英军的只能溃逃。这一场面在满八旗军对明军的野战中重复了无数次，其原因就是明军属于轻步兵，缺少重兵的掩护。
　　
　　赶走英军后卫部队的苏格兰重骑兵返回主战场，从后翼夹击英军重步兵。结果已经没有悬念，英重步兵彻底被粉碎。
　　

契丹

　辽国兵制，凡民年十五以上，五十以下，隶兵籍。每正军一名，马三疋，打草谷、守营铺家丁各一人。人铁甲九事，马鞯辔，马甲皮铁，视其力；弓四，箭四百，长短枪、櫼欁、斧钺、小旗、锤锥、火刀石、马盂、抯一斗、抯袋、搭挷伞各一，縻马绳二百尺，皆自备。人马不给粮草，日遣打草谷骑四出抄掠以供之。铸金鱼符，调发军马。

辽国军队纪律颇严。惟南、北、奚王，东京渤海兵马，燕京统军兵马，虽奉诏，未敢发兵，必以闻。上遣大将持金鱼符，合，然後行。

　皇帝亲征，分为三路，广信军、雄州、霸州各一。各路军马遇县镇，即时攻击。若大州军，必先料其虚实、可攻次第而後进兵。沿途民居、园囿、桑柘，必夷伐焚荡。至宋北京，三路兵皆会，以议攻取。及退亦然。三路军马前後左右有先锋。远探拦子马各十数人，在先锋前後二十馀里，全副衣甲，夜中每行十里或五里少驻，下马侧听无有人马之声。有则擒之；力不可敌，飞报先锋，齐力攻击。如有大军，走报主帅。敌中虚实，动必知之。军行当道州城，防守坚固，不可攻击，引兵过之。恐敌人出城邀阻，乃围射鼓噪，诈为攻击。敌方闭城固守，前路无阻，引兵进，分兵抄截，使随处州城隔绝不通，孤立无援。所过大小州城，至夜，恐城中出兵突击，及与邻州计会军马，甲夜，每城以骑兵百人去城门左右百馀步，被甲执兵，立马以待。兵出，力不能加，驰还勾集众兵与战。左右官道、斜径、山路、河津，夜中并遣兵巡守。其打草谷家丁，各衣甲持兵，旋团为队，必先斫伐园林，然後驱掠老幼，运土木填壕堑；攻城之际，必使先登，矢石檑木并下，止伤老幼。又於本国州县起汉人乡兵万人，随军专伐园林，填道路。

敌军既阵，料其阵势小大，山川形势，往回道路，救援捷径，漕运所出，各有以制之。然後於阵四面，烈骑为队，每队五、七百人，十队为一道，十道当一面，各有主帅。最先一队走马大噪，冲突敌阵。得利，则诸队齐进；若未利，引退，第二队继之。退者，息马饮水抯。诸道皆然。更退迭进，敌阵不动，亦不力战。历二三日，待其困惫，又令打草谷家丁马施双帚，因风疾驰，扬尘敌阵，更互往来。中既饥疲，目不相睹，可以取胜。若阵南获胜，阵北失利，主将在中，无以知之，则以本国四方山川为号，声以相闻，得相救应。

　　若帝不亲征，重臣统兵不下十五万众，三路往还，北京会兵，进以九月，退以十二月，行事次第皆如之。若春以正月，秋以九月，不命都统，止遣骑兵六万，不许深入，不攻城池，不伐林木；但於界外三百里内，耗荡生聚，不令种养而已。

　　军入南界，步骑车帐不循阡陌。三道将领各一人。率拦子马各万骑，支散游弈百十里外，更迭觇逻。及暮，以吹角为号，众即顿舍，环绕御帐。自近及远，折木稍屈，为弓子铺，不设枪营堑栅之备。

　　每军行，鼓三伐，不问昼夜，大众齐发。未遇大敌，不乘战马；俟近敌师，乘新羁马，蹄有馀力。成列不战，退则乘之。多伏兵断粮道，冒夜举火，上风曳柴。馈饷自赍，散而复聚。善战，能寒。此兵之所以强也。

太宗益选天下精甲，置诸爪牙为皮室军。合骑五十万，国威壮矣。
　　大帐皮室军，凡三十万骑。属珊军，二十万骑。 有兵事，则五京、二州各提辖司传檄而集，不待调发州县、部族，十万骑军已立具矣。

二帐、十二宫一府、五京，有兵一百六十四万二千八百，其中一百一十万七千三百为乡兵。

匈奴

太祖高皇帝中六年（公元前二零一年） 初，匈奴畏秦，北徙十馀年。及秦灭，匈奴复稍南渡河。
袭击东胡。东胡初轻冒顿，不为备；冒顿遂灭东胡。既归，又西击走月氏，南并楼烦、白羊河南王，遂侵燕、代，悉收蒙恬所夺匈奴故地与汉关故河南塞至朝那、肤施。是时，汉兵方与项羽相距，中国罢于兵革，以故冒顿得自强，控弦之士三十馀万，威服诸国。秋，匈奴围韩王信于马邑。信数使使胡，求和解。汉发兵救之。疑信数间使，有二心，使人责让信。信恐诛，九月，以马邑降匈奴。匈奴冒顿因引兵南逾句注，攻太原，至晋阳。

上自将击韩王信，破其军于铜鞮，斩其将王喜。信亡走匈奴；白土人曼丘臣、王黄等立赵苗裔赵利为王，复收信败散兵，与信及匈奴谋攻汉。匈奴使左、右贤王将万馀骑，与王黄等屯广武以南，至晋阳，汉兵击之，匈奴辄败走，已复屯聚，汉兵乘胜追之。会天大寒，雨雪，士卒堕指者什二三。
帝先至平城，兵未尽到；冒顿纵精兵四十万骑，围帝于白登七日，汉兵中外不得相救饷。帝用陈平秘计，使使间厚遗阏氏。阏氏谓冒顿曰：“两主不相困。今得汉地，而单于终非能居之也。且汉主亦有神灵，单于察之！”冒顿与王黄、赵利期，而黄、利兵不来，疑其与汉有谋，乃解围之一角。会天大雾，汉使人往来，匈奴不觉。陈平请令强弩傅两矢，外乡，从解角直出。帝出围，欲驱；太仆滕公固徐行。至平城，汉大军亦到，胡骑遂解去。

匈奴攻代。代王喜弃国自归，赦为郃阳侯。

太宗孝文皇帝下十四年（公元前一六六年）冬，匈奴老上单于十四万骑入朝那、萧关，杀北地都尉卬，虏人民畜产甚多；遂至彭阳，使奇兵入烧回中宫，候骑至雍甘泉。

匈奴连岁入边，杀略人民、畜产甚多；云中、辽东最甚，郡万馀人。

太宗孝文皇帝下六年（公元前一五八年）冬，匈奴三万骑入上郡，三万骑入云中，所杀略甚众，烽火通于甘泉、长安。

孝景皇帝下六年（公元前一四四年）六月，匈奴入雁门，至武泉，入上郡，取苑马。吏卒战死者二千人。
陇西李广为上郡太守，尝从百骑出，卒遇匈奴数千骑。见广，以为诱骑，皆惊，上山陈。广之百骑皆大恐，欲驰还走。广曰：“吾去大军数十里，今如此以百骑走，匈奴追射我立尽。今我留，匈奴必以我为大军之诱，必不敢击我。”广令诸骑曰：“前！”未到匈奴阵二里所，止，令曰：“皆下马解鞍！”其骑曰：“虏多且近，即有急，奈何？”广曰：“彼虏以我为走；今皆解鞍以示不走，用坚其意。”于是胡骑遂不敢击。有白马将出，护其兵；李广上马，与十馀骑奔，射杀白马将而复还，至其骑中解鞍，令士皆纵马卧。是时会暮，胡兵终怪之，不敢击。

孝景皇帝下二年（公元前一四二年)三月，匈奴入雁门，太守冯敬与战，死。发车骑、材官屯雁门。

世宗孝武皇帝上之下元光二年（戊申，公元前一三三年）
夏，六月，以御史大夫韩安国为护军将军，卫尉李广为骁骑将军，太仆公孙贺为轻车将军，大行王恢为将屯将军，太中大夫李息为材官将军，将车骑、材官三十馀万匿马邑旁谷中，约单于入马邑纵兵。阴使聂壹为间，亡入匈奴，谓单于曰：“吾能斩马邑令、丞，以城降，财物可尽得。”单于爱信，以为然而许之。聂壹乃诈斩死罪囚，县其头马邑城下，示单于使者为信，曰：“马邑长吏已死，可急来！”于是单于穿塞，将十万骑入武州塞。未至马邑百馀里，见畜布野而无人牧者，怪之。乃攻亭，得雁门尉史，欲杀之，尉史乃告单于汉兵所居。单于大惊曰：“吾固疑之。”乃引兵还，出曰：“吾得尉史，天也！”以尉史为天王。塞下传言单于已去，汉兵追至塞，度弗及，乃皆罢兵。王恢主别从代出击胡辎重，闻单于还，兵多，亦不敢出。

世宗孝武皇帝上之下元光六年（公元前一二九年）
匈奴入上谷，杀略吏民。遣车骑将军卫青出上谷，骑将军公孙敖出代，轻车将军公孙贺出云中，骁骑将军李广出雁门，各万骑，击胡关市下。卫青至龙城，得胡首虏七百人；公孙贺无所得；公孙敖为胡所败，亡七千骑；李广亦为胡所败。胡生得广，置两马间，络而盛卧，行十馀里；广佯死，暂腾而上胡儿马上，夺其弓，鞭马南驰，遂得脱归。汉下敖、广吏，当斩，赎为庶人；唯青赐爵关内侯。

晁错论匈奴(公元前一六九年)：
今匈奴地形、技艺与中国异，上下山阪，出入溪涧，中国之马弗与也；险道倾仄，且驰且射，中国之骑弗与也；风雨罢劳，饥渴不困，中国之人弗与也；此匈奴之长技也。若夫平原、易地、轻车、突骑，则匈奴之众易挠乱也；劲弩、长戟、射疏、及远，则匈奴之弓弗能格也；坚甲、利刃，长短相杂，游弩往来，什伍俱前，则匈奴之兵弗能当也；材官驺发，矢道同的，则匈奴之革笥、木荐弗能支也；下马地斗，剑戟相接，去就相薄，则匈奴之足弗能给也；此中国之长技也。以此观之，匈奴之长技三，中国之长技五。陛下又兴数十万之众以诛数万之匈奴，众寡之计，以一击十之术也。

long bow vs crossbow

i own medieval crossbows upto 750lbs and an english longbow that is 127lbs. I have range tested both using bolts and arrows based off examples given in text and what i can find in museiums.

A crossbow shooting a hard wood tapered bolt that is a copy from bolts in the tower of london on displat with a 3/4 oz war head will travel just short of 300 yards off a 750lb war crossbow. This type of crossbow was VERY common in the late 1400's to early 1500's after they started getting spring steel making down right. This combo will also blow a hole through 1/8" C1018 plate steel at 80 yards and have enough energy left to bury into a hickory tree upto the socket of the bodkin (about 1.5 inches)

The longbow with a average arrow wieghing in at 600 grains will travel just over 190 yards with a 127lb longbow. It has the energy to pierce the same plate, but not go through it (bodkin makes hole but bodkin doesn't go in) at 35 yards. The same combineation WILL bounch off 16 and 18 guage "welding plate" at ranges over 70 yards. It pierces at 50 yards and will start doing serious damage on said thin guage plate at under 45 yards. Complete pass through seems to happen at under 30 to 25 yards. I consider a 127lb long bow about "average" for the bows used. Heavier bows were seen, but in my studys they seem to be 90 to about 140lbs.

Bolts have a better ballistics in flight then arrows do, war quarrels usually weigh in a tad more then a war arrow but travel around the same speed as a arrow - they impact harder. A simple example of this is to fire a long bow through a crony and a steel prod crossbow, a 127lb long bow is about 165fps and a 750lb crossbow is about 169fps - both using their war missiles.
From my studies it was possible in the later 1500's to early 1600's that the heavyest of war bows (the siege crossbows and longbows that a crossbow was known to puncture 12 inches of bound oak while a longbow was only able to puncture 4" of the same bound oak. These were the heaviest of the bows before blackpower ended the plate armor. The crossbows able to do this measured in at UNDER 1500lbs with most being 1200lbs. These were heavy seige type brace shooting crossbows with crankqines. Windlass crossbows stopped at about 800lbs.
As for the battle of Argincourt. You have to remember that it rained before the battle. The english took there strings off the bows and put them where they did not get wet. The crossbow toting french could not do this. Due to the fibers used then the wet strians stretched making the crossbow useless and unshootable - OF COURSE it was a slaughter. That said i beleive that if the french could have returned fire and based off there numbers vs the english the english would have taken heavy damage. The english walked over the french due to the ablity to fire volleys into a paniced army.
There is no doubt however that the longbow is a "machine gun" compared to a war crossbow. I personally can get 9 arrows off in one minute aiming. Even my 450lb "light" goatsfoot crossbow i can only get 5 bolts off in one minute and that is in a hustle. So rate of fire is on the side of the longbow - however the longbow loses to range and shear force down range of a heavier missle shot. **** depending on the weight of the crossbow shot)
For a referance my 450lb goatsfoot crossbow will only range out at 230 yards and doesn't have the impact of its heavy brother.
Again this is just my experiance with bows i build and play with. I do these as a part time fun job and while im not expert - firing live ammo shows me both weapons have thier advantages and disadvantages. Each weapon had its "area" that it was designed to be used. Open battle ground was not a good place to use a heavy war crossbow, unless you were opening a volley with them, after that - the longbow would eat you alive in shear numbers of arrows blanketing the ground.
The effective range of a crossbow was over 90 yards, it is said and backed up by the way my thumb board is made that the "point blank" of a heavy war crossbow WAS 80 paces/yards. This means i aim at your head i will strike you NO LOWER then the throat at 80 yards. This is due to the upward sweep of the properly made shelf of the crossbow.
Volley fire at 150 yards of the longbow was ment to cuase MASS confusion, think about this. 1 arrow per square foot. take a 100 foot by 50 foot section of land. 5000 archers loosing arrows at a rate of 1 every 6 seconds in volley fire at sections of the oppsing army. Thats blocks of armies getting hit in all none protected area. The sound alone was enough to make you pass out i bet!!!. Lines panic, sheilds drop - more carnage. Your talking 5000 archers with 8 to 12 arrows a minute - do the math over a 2 to 3 minute period which was COMMON in opening volleys.
The lonbow was effective on a non armored person out to his max range and it is said the common archer was able to strike a human at 150 yards 8 out of 10 times. However add light plate, chain mail and leather the archers effective killing range or "mess the persons world up" was about 50 yards and under. This was to get a good clean pass through leather and light armor. It was under 25 yards to get thru plate. Most archers of the time were long gone if a knight was within 25 yards.
Figure a archer had a dagger, a sword if he was lucky, very little armor and VERY little hand to hand training. Why take on a sharging knight. archers killed armor in multi archers picking one target more times then not.

For the 1200 lbs He found that weight by hanging weight to draw the string to the nut (7inches) The weight of that crossbow was 18 lbs and the bow was 3 feet 2 inchesThat the one that shot 450-460 yeads (over the straight measured on an ordnance map What he call a hear war crossbow is 15-16 lbs and the bow was 2 feet 7inchesHe said that the range was about 390 yards.Both crossbow where original and the distance where measured with a surveyor抯 chain and used windlass. I would imagine that poundage is in the range of what uccrossbows is using 750-850 lbs.
He was shooting bolts of 12 inched weighting 2 oz

In all reality my studies show the average target crossbow was in the range of 50 to 250lbs - this is about the max you would want to belthook - you can belt hook upto 400lbs but it is not fun. Hunting crossbows were in the 200 to 500lb range. This also began a war crossbow. This is were goatsfoots are used, however 450lbs in about the max you want to play with a goatsfoot due to material strenght and speed. In came the windlass. These are for hunting bows and turned into war bows. 450 to 800lbs is were a windlass shines. I have seen elk hit with 600lbs, the elk never knew it was hit and stood there and fell over dead (captions in history tell us of knights that died this way after a crossbow hit).
The crankline was used for the heaviest bows ever produced in period. They were a 30 to 49 to 1 ratio and had to be as they cranked the 800+ bows. They took a long time to crank but when things got hit by the bolt they died. Cranklines are also a real pain in the butt to make - as is the prod and crossbow they use them on - they were very rare to see.

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