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Saturday, July 02, 2005

朝鲜战争美军死亡数目探讨

朝鲜战争美军死亡到底有多少, 这问题本不应该很复杂。但由于政治和官僚等原因,变得不容易回答,尤其是中文资料中很少有能给出正确答案的。

朝鲜战争停火后不久的53年8月14日,朝鲜人民最高司令部和中国人民志愿军司令部联合发表战绩。公报称:自1950年6月25日至本日止,共毙伤俘敌军一百零九万三千八百三十九名,其中美军三十九万七千五百四十三名 (见附录一)。

不过就是中国学术界也并不认可这个数目, 近些年来文章所用的伤亡数目多是出自美国政府的统计。美国国防部在54年公布了朝鲜战争伤亡数字,后又分别在80年和94年作出修正。许多文章引用的美国华盛顿市中心朝鲜战争纪念碑(KOREA MEMORIAL)上数字:

阵亡美军54246,联合国军628833;失踪美军8177,联合国军470267;被俘美军7140,联合国军92970;受伤美军103204,联合国军1064453。

一些历史学家和退伍老兵在研究朝鲜战争及其士兵伤亡情况时,对其中的一些数字产生疑问。俄亥俄州立大学的战争史学家Allan Millett是其中之一,正是因为他的要求,五角大楼在90年代开始对原始数字进行重新审核,其结果是2000年,也就是朝鲜战争50年纪念前更正了朝鲜战争死亡数字。附录二就是2004年美国官方最新的朝鲜战争伤亡数据。

新的伤亡数字除了把死亡数字细化分类外,与旧的统计上有两个大的区别:

主要的一条是在旧的统计中,“其它死亡”数据不仅包括了朝鲜战场上的非战斗死亡,也包括了世界其它各地的美军死亡数。美国政府对此的一个解释是在世界一战和二战期间,美军各地的伤亡,包括在本土上,都计入在战争伤亡中;而朝鲜战争是美国打的一场局部战争,统计人员尚未适应这样的变化。新的数据是朝鲜非战斗死亡2833人,在世界其它各地死亡(包括战斗和非战斗)共17672人。

另有一个大变化是把含义模糊不清的“失踪”(missing)8000多人改为“无遗体”(no remains 或 body-not-recovered/identified),并加以分类。这两者还是有很大区别的,前者有“死活不知”的意思,后者则已认定这8126多士兵(旧的统计数为8177,差异是其中归还了一些遗骨)死亡,只是“死不得尸”。

本人所见中文资料许多是这样个算法:美军阵亡、失踪、被俘,再加上受伤的人数就是美军伤亡总数,例如维基百科和某“最权威的翔实数据”等的17万美军伤亡就是这样计算出来的。这种计算是不科学的,如被俘7140人中,有2849人死亡而已算入阵亡中,其又有1901尸体未归还而再次算在了失踪中,里面有多重计算。

关于被称为“失踪”的八千多士兵的是否已在阵亡数目中的问题,大多文章计算时也是另算的,但这是一个理解错误,实际这8126人属于死亡的36574中,而非另外单独一项。

在附录二中可以看“死亡”和“无遗体”中各另有“失踪”项目。在“非战斗失踪”(Missing, Non-hostile )一项中,两处数据完全一样:总人数8人,陆军4人,空军4人;。而在“战斗中失踪”(Missing in Action)一项:
“死亡”总人数4817人,陆军3337人,空军991人,陆战队386人,海军103人
“无遗体”总人数4578人,陆军3302人,空军809人,陆战队373人,海军94人
两处非常接近,而且后者比前者略少。

这个小差别是由于日后新发现或者归还尸体所产生的,下面这条American Forces Press Service 今年发布的新闻可以解释这一现象:
美国国防部在星期五 (2005年2月25日) 宣布,一具在朝鲜战争(1950-1953) 战斗中失踪的美空军飞行员的遗体已经被确认,并将送还其家人安葬。 Donna Miles 报导。

另外,在Marty O'Brien 所著的“Casualty Book”中,包括了其个人的研究和著名的蓝德公司的统计,也证实了这8000多人是算入在死亡数目里(本人也核实了部分“失踪”人员名单,同样也在死亡士兵数据库中)。

至此我们可以说,美国政府数据应该这样理解:
朝鲜战争美军共死亡36574人,其中战斗死亡33741人,非战斗死亡2833人,有8126具尸体未能寻回。
战争人员损失中如包括被俘人员,则总共是40865人 (36574 + 7140 -2849)。
加上受伤人员,为144069人(次)。

那么剩下的问题是美国政府的统计数目的准确性有多高,会不会有所隐瞒。

朝鲜战争战斗死亡和战争期间美军总死亡人数从战争结束到现在变动很小,就是说这两个数字不会距真实情况太大(战斗死亡四十年变化不到千分之一),比较可能出错的是非战斗死亡的数字,这也正是第一次出错的地方。

有些人阅读附录二时会注意到一个细节,那就是朝鲜战争美国总征兵数是5,720,000人,在朝鲜服过役的多达1,789,000人,比例高达32%; 而朝鲜战区非战斗伤亡只有总数的不到14% (2833/20505),比例不合理。

需要说明的是由于大规模轮换制度,去过朝鲜的美国兵确实不少,但只论同一时刻,驻朝美军的比例并不高。如以美军在停战前兵力达到最高峰的53年6月底来算,美国共有兵力3,555,067人,而在朝鲜驻军326,863人,不到10%。

另有一些评论认为朝鲜战争期间,美军共有两万士兵非战斗死亡,人数多于一个步兵师,不太合理。

根据美国国防部的统计,非战斗死亡率在二战后是递减的,在朝鲜战争期间是每十万人每年非战斗死亡192人,80年到117人,93年降到72人。朝鲜战争期间由于大规模紧急招兵,数字偏高,但也非离谱。

但从另一方面讲,出错的可能性并不能完全避免。尤其考虑到两个原因:
第一,朝鲜战争时美国的统计和数据的保存与管理远比不上信息化的现代,一些原始资料胶片字迹到现在已经模糊不清。而且各兵种自行统计归类,但分类标准却不相同。
第二,在70年代圣路易斯和90年代华盛顿分别有一次火灾,烧毁了部分历史原始资料。

如Marty O'Brien个人所作的研究,美军在朝鲜非战斗死亡3262人,在世界其它地方为17355人。随着美国政府把所有非战斗死亡的名单整理完毕后,在朝鲜非战斗死亡数目可能还会有所增加,但增加的不会很多,毕竟世界其它各地的美军非战斗死亡率是不会低到7、80年代程度的,更何况50年代初还有在意大利等地的作战行动伤亡,所以美国政府的统计数字应该与真实数目相近。

有许多文章引用这样一个资料:1953年10月23日,美联社曾发表了一个数字,称美军战斗伤亡及失踪人数为144 360人。 这则消息的原始文本本人未能找到,但其数目和现代统计的数字很接近,历史似乎开了个玩笑,经过许多失误、更正、研究,最初的数字反而似乎是最接近真实的数字。

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附录一:中国革命军事博物馆专家编撰 (源于解放军报网络版)

14日 朝鲜人民军最高司令部和中国人民志愿军司令部联合发布人民军自1950年6月25日起和自1950年10月25日起与志愿军并肩作战至1953年7月27日为止的三年零一个月的综合战绩公报:(一)共毙伤俘敌军1093839名,其中美军397543名,南朝鲜军667293名,英国、澳大利亚、加拿大、土耳其、泰国、菲律宾、法国、荷兰、比利时、希腊、哥伦比亚、南非等国军29003名。



附录二:
CASUALTY TYPE ; TOTAL; ARMY; AIR FORCE; MARINES; NAVY
Killed in Action (KIA); 23,615; 19,715; 209; 3,320; 371
Died of Wounds (DOW); 2,460; 1,887; 14; 532; 27
Missing in Action - Declared Dead; 4,817; 3,337; 991; 386; 103
Captured - Declared Dead; 2,849; 2,792; 24; 29; 4
TOTAL HOSTILE DEATHS: 33,741; 27,731; 1,238; 4,267; 505

Missing - Presumed Dead: 8; 4; 4;
Other Deaths: 2,825; 2,121; 310; 242; 152
TOTAL NON-HOSTILE DEATHS: 2,833; 2,125; 314; 242; 152

TOTAL IN-THEATER DEATHS*: 36,574; 29,856; 1,552; 4,509; 657
TOTAL NON-THEATER DEATHS: 17,672; 7,277; 5,532; 1,019; 3,844
TOTAL DEATHS: 54,246; 37,133; 7,084; 5,528; 4,501

Killed in Action - No Remains 1,533; 1,081; 49; 255; 148
Died of Wounds - No Remains 22; 22
Missing in Action - Declared Dead - No Remains; 4,578; 3,302; 809; 373; 94
Captured - Declared Dead - No Remains; 1,901; 1,860; 13; 25; 3
Non-hostile Missing - Presumed Dead - No Remains; 8; 4; 4
Non-hostile Other Deaths - No Remains; 84; 5; 37; 6; 36
TOTAL - NO REMAINS; 8,126; 6,274; 912; 659; 281

WOUNDED - NOT MORTAL 103,284; 77,596; 368; 23,744; 1,576
NUMBER SERVING WORLDWIDE** 5,720,000; 2,834,000; 1,285,000; 424,000; 1,177,000
NUMBER SERVING IN-THEATER** 1,789,000; 1,153,000; 241,000; 130,000; 265,000

*Inclusive dates are June 25, 1950 to July 27, 1953. Casualty dates after the end date represent servicemembers who were wounded during the period and subsequently died as a result of those wounds and thoseservice members who where involved in an incident during the period and were later declared dead.

**Estimated Figures

Prepared by: Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports

As of June 15, 2004

附录三:
KOREA MEMORIAL:
USA U.N.
Dead 54,246; 628,833
Missing 8,177; 470,267
Captured 7,140; 92,970
Wounded 103,204; 1,064,453

附录四:
Active Duty Period of Time; Strength; Non-BattleDeaths Total; Deaths Per100,00 Per Year June 25, 1950-July 27, 1953(approx. 37 mos.); *3,480,117; 20,617; 192
Fiscal Year 1980; 2,050,627; 2,389; 117
Fiscal Year 1993; 1,705,103; 1,234; 72


附录五:
DoD discloses new figures on Korean War dead
by Tara Rigler
WASHINGTON (Army News Service, May 30, 2000) -- As the Department of Army plans for the 50th anniversary of the Korean War commemoration, Defense Department officials have disclosed the number of U.S. casualties suffered in the Korean War was about 17,000 fewer than the 54,000 casualties usually cited.
The U.S. Bureau of the Census and the Social Science Research Council first published the erroneous 54,000 figure in the Statistical History of the United States shortly after the Korean War.
Since 1960, this number has been commonly accepted by scholars, published in textbooks, etched on monuments and published in official Department of Defense publications.
However, during the 1990s, DoD officials began reviewing the Surgeon General's original records of the dead and wounded from the Korean War. They re-examined the numbers of service members killed in action, those who died of wounds, service members missing in action, and prisoners of war who died while in captivity. The officials concluded the inaccurate war-related death figure was due to confusion with the category "other deaths."
Allan Millett, a historian at Ohio State who is writing a book on the Korean War, raised the issue last year. "In part from his prompting, we re-examined the figures," said Joel Meyerson of the Army's Center of Military History.
Officials confirmed that the figure for "other deaths" included both non-battle deaths in Korea and other deaths in the armed forces that occurred outside Korea during the years of war. As a result, officials have adjusted the casualty figures, excluding the 17,730 who died elsewhere. The total number of deaths in theater now stands at 36,616 - of whom 33,686 were battle deaths and 2,830 were non-battle deaths.

Hostile(H): KIA = “Killed in Action”; DOW = “Died of Wounds”;
Non-Hostile(NH): DNB = “Died Non-Battle”; DOC = “Died Other Causes”; NHC = “Non-Hostile Casualty.”
DPOW - Died While Prisoner of War; DWM - Died While Missing;

附录六:
AUSTRALIA - two infantry battalions; 1 fighter squadron; one air transport squadron; one carrier; two destroyers; one frigate – 2,282 personnel; 291 dead, 1,240 wounded.
BELGIUM - one infantry battalion, including Luxembourg unit of 44 men—944 personnel; 97 dead, 350 wounded.
CANADA - one army brigade of three infantry battalions, one artillery regiment, one armored regiment, three destroyers and one air squadron—6,146 personnel; 291 dead, 1,072 wounded.
COLOMBIA - one infantry battalion and one frigate—1,068 personnel; 140 dead, 452 wounded.
ETHIOPIA - one infantry battalion—1,271 personnel; 120 dead, 536 wounded.
FRANCE - one infantry battalion and one gunboat—1,185 personnel; 288 dead, 818 wounded.
GREECE - one infantry battalion and one gunboat—1,263 personnel; 169 dead, 543 wounded.
LUXEMBOURG - one infantry unit of 44 personnel, combined with Belgian battalion.
NETHERLANDS - one infantry battalion and one destroyer—819 personnel; 111 dead, 589 wounded.
NEW ZEALAND - one artillery regiment and two forgets—1,389 personnel; 34 dead, 80 wounded.
PHILIPPINES - one regimental combat team—1,496 personnel; 92 dead, 299 wounded.
SOUTH AFRICA - one fighter squadron; 20 dead.
THAILAND - one regimental combat team; two corvettes, and one air transport squadron—2,174 personnel; 114 dead, 794 wounded.
TURKEY - one army brigade—5,455 personnel; 717 dead, 2,246 wounded.
UNITED KINGDOM - two army brigades of five infantry battalions with support armor and artillery; 1 carrier, 2 cruisers, 2 destroyers, and 3 frigates with accompanying marine and support units—14,198 personnel; 710 dead, 2,278 wounded.
DENMARK, INDIA, ITALY, NORWAY and SWEDEN each sent a medical contingent; none reported casualties

附录七:
The US Defense Department announced Friday, (February 25, 2005) that the remains of a US Air Force pilot, missing in action from the Korean War (1950-1953), has been identified and will soon be returned to his family for burial.
By Donna MilesAmerican Forces Press Service

附录八: US Military strength
http://web1.whs.osd.mil/mmid/military/ms9.pdf
FY ARMY NAVY MARINE CORPS AIR FORCE
1950 593,167; 380,739; 74,279; 411,277
1951 1,531,774; 736,596; 192,620; 788,381
1952 1,596,419; 824,265; 231,967; 983,261
1953 1,533,815; 794,440; 249,219; 977,593

Ref:
1:http://www.koreanwar.org/html/korean_war_databases.html

2:Marty O'Brien's Casualty Book:http://koreanwar-educator.org/topics/casualties/obrien/obrien_toc.htm
[Of the 33,651 personnel who died in the Korean War, 8,135 remains officially have not been identified or recovered though 1996.]


3. Non-hostile Other Deaths
Branch of Service; Korea; Other Than Korea;
Totals Army: 2,452; 6,977; 9,429
Navy: 173; 3,870; 4,043
Air Force: 298; 5,586; 5,884
Marine Corps: 339; 922; 1,261
Totals: 3,262; 17,355; 20,617

4. He cited a fire in 1973 at the National Personnel Records Center at St. Louis, Missouri and a 1990 fire in D.C. which destroyed the American Battle Monuments Commission¡¯s (ABMC) historical record.

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